The continuous nature of belief states in POMDPs presents significant computational challenges in learning the optimal policy. In this paper, we consider an approach that solves a Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning (PORL) problem by approximating the corresponding POMDP model into a finite-state Markov Decision Process (MDP) (called Superstate MDP). We first derive theoretical guarantees that improve upon prior work that relate the optimal value function of the transformed Superstate MDP to the optimal value function of the original POMDP. Next, we propose a policy-based learning approach with linear function approximation to learn the optimal policy for the Superstate MDP. Consequently, our approach shows that a POMDP can be approximately solved using TD-learning followed by Policy Optimization by treating it as an MDP, where the MDP state corresponds to a finite history. We show that the approximation error decreases exponentially with the length of this history. To the best of our knowledge, our finite-time bounds are the first to explicitly quantify the error introduced when applying standard TD learning to a setting where the true dynamics are not Markovian.

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires agents to balance reducing uncertainty (exploration) against pursuing immediate objectives (exploitation). In this paper, we introduce a novel policy optimization framework for continuous partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that explicitly addresses this challenge. Our method casts policy learning as probabilistic inference in a non-Markovian Feynman-Kac model that inherently captures the value of information gathering by anticipating future observations, without requiring suboptimal approximations or handcrafted heuristics. To optimize policies under this model, we develop a nested sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that efficiently estimates a history-dependent policy gradient under samples from the optimal trajectory distribution induced by the POMDP. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm across standard continuous POMDP benchmarks, where existing methods struggle to act under uncertainty.

Learning a compact representation of history is critical for planning and generalization in partially observable environments. While meta-reinforcement learning (RL) agents can attain near Bayes-optimal policies, they often fail to learn the compact, interpretable Bayes-optimal belief states. This representational inefficiency potentially limits the agent's adaptability and generalization capacity. Inspired by predictive coding in neuroscience--which suggests that the brain predicts sensory inputs as a neural implementation of Bayesian inference--and by auxiliary predictive objectives in deep RL, we investigate whether integrating self-supervised predictive coding modules into meta-RL can facilitate learning of Bayes-optimal representations. Through state machine simulation, we show that meta-RL with predictive modules consistently generates more interpretable representations that better approximate Bayes-optimal belief states compared to conventional meta-RL across a wide variety of tasks, even when both achieve optimal policies. In challenging tasks requiring active information seeking, only meta-RL with predictive modules successfully learns optimal representations and policies, whereas conventional meta-RL struggles with inadequate representation learning. Finally, we demonstrate that better representation learning leads to improved generalization. Our results strongly suggest the role of predictive learning as a guiding principle for effective representation learning in agents navigating partial observability.

LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to consult, or how many resources to invest. While the usefulness and feasibility of Bayesian approaches remain unclear for LLM inference, this position paper argues that the control layer of an agentic AI system (that orchestrates LLMs and tools) is a clear case where Bayesian principles should shine. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for agentic systems that can help to maintain beliefs over task-relevant latent quantities, to update these beliefs from observed agentic and human-AI interactions, and to choose actions. Making LLMs themselves explicitly Bayesian belief-updating engines remains computationally intensive and conceptually nontrivial as a general modeling target. In contrast, this paper argues that coherent decision-making requires Bayesian principles at the orchestration level of the agentic system, not necessarily the LLM agent parameters. This paper articulates practical properties for Bayesian control that fit modern agentic AI systems and human-AI collaboration, and provides concrete examples and design patterns to illustrate how calibrated beliefs and utility-aware policies can improve agentic AI orchestration.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Traditionally, each component of task-oriented dialogue systems is trained independently with different supervision.